Read_Me file to accompany "THE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC PATHS FOR REVENUE PROJECTIONS," by Leonard Burman, Benjamin Page, and David Weiner, National Tax Journal, December 2022

We cannot post the underlying tax data or the Tax Policy Center microsimulation tax model. The public use file is available from the Statistics on Income division of the IRS for a fee. The tax model is proprietary. An open-source tax model is available from the Policy Simulation Library. See https://taxcalc.pslmodels.org/usage/overview.html for a description of the model.

The zip archive, uncertain_paths.zip, includes the following 5 files plus this read_me file:

1. 5000runs_to_publish.xlsx

An excel spreadsheet containing the results for the model inputs (GDP, Employment, and S&P) and outputs (income tax, payroll tax) for the 5,000 simulations. The spreadsheet has one tab with all of the results and separate tabs for each of the projection years.  There is also a tab with the CBO baseline forecast.

2. macro_sp500_dofile.do

A ststa do file that estimates the time series regressions, which produces parameter estimates to generate for the stochastic simulations

3. generate_stochastic.do

A stata do file that performs the stochastic simulations.

4. new_macro_data_10_9.xlsx

A spreadsheet of historical data from CBO and BEA that are used as input to macro_sp500_dofile.do.

5. scaling_microsimulation_modeling_in_the_cloud_-_a_guide.pdf

This documents the Urban Institute's "Modeling in the Cloud" project and includes code for implementing a simple version on Amazon Web Services.
